How prediction markets work
A prediction market turns a question into a price. The price is the crowd's probability — nothing more, nothing less — and it moves every time someone puts money behind their view.
Prices are probabilities
Every share pays out $1.00 if its outcome happens and $0.00 if it does not. So a share trading at 62¢ implies a 62% chance. Buy at 40¢ and a correct position returns 60¢ a share; buy at 90¢ and a correct position returns just 10¢, because the market already thinks it is likely.
- Yes pays $1 if the outcome happens.
- No pays $1 if it does not — it is the mirror image of Yes, priced at 100¢ minus the Yes price.
- Prices are quoted in cents. 100¢ = certainty, 1¢ = near-impossible.
Date ladders
"When will…" questions trade as a ladder of exclusive date buckets. Exactly one bucket resolves Yes; every other bucket resolves No. The bucket prices should therefore add up to roughly 100¢ — any gap is the spread, and any sum above 100¢ is an arbitrage someone will take.
The order book
Torus shows a live book of bids and offers around the last price. Buying moves the price against you — a large order fills at a worse average than a small one, which is exactly how a real exchange behaves. Every fill is printed in the recent-trades feed.
Settlement
Each market lists its resolution source and its closing date. When the question is decided, the winning outcome settles at 100¢ and every other outcome at 0¢. Positions held to settlement pay out at that value; positions can also be sold back into the book at any time before settlement.
Frequently asked
Is this real money? No. Torus is a demonstration exchange. Every account starts with $1,000 of simulated cash, and no deposits, withdrawals or real-money wagers are possible.
Why do prices move when I trade? Because the book has finite depth. A 1,000-share order eats through several price levels, so your average fill is worse than the quoted top-of-book price.
Can I lose more than I put in? No. Buying a share costs at most 99¢ and can lose at most what you paid. There is no leverage.
What happens if a market is ambiguous? The written rules govern. Resolution follows the named official source and the closing date, not the headlines.
Can I reset my balance? Not yet from the UI — clearing your browser cookies creates a fresh demo account with a new $1,000 balance.
Responsible note
Prediction markets are a way to aggregate information, not a way to get rich. Nothing on this site is financial advice, and no outcome on Torus is a real wager. If real-money prediction markets are available where you live, they are regulated products with real risk — treat them accordingly.