Live odds on tomorrow's front pages
Trade what happens next.
Buy and sell on the questions shaping the news — who survives, when wars end, who wins. Prices are probabilities, set by the crowd in real time.
$139.9MVolume traded
22Open markets
12,480Traders this week
Featured market
$3.6M vol
When will Andy Burnham be forced out as Prime Minister?
Not before 2028
73%
December 2026
52%
Jan – Mar 2027
41%
Jul – Dec 2027
36%
+2 more outcomes
Closes 31 Dec 2027 · 6 outcomes
Trade now
Civic Index
The Midterms 2026 Predictor
Three calls on the House, the Senate and the seat count. Picks lock as the last polls close — 04:00 UTC on 4 November.
Prize
£500
Enter free
All markets
22 markets · prices shown as implied probability
US midterms
$41.4M vol
Which party wins control of the US House?
- Democratic Party 65%
- Republican Party 5%
Closes 3 Nov 2026
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US midterms
$28.5M vol
Which party controls the US Senate after the midterms?
- Republican Party 56%
- Democratic Party 46%
Closes 3 Nov 2026
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Russia–Ukraine
$9.9M vol
When will the war between Russia and Ukraine end?
- Not before 2028 97%
- December 2026 67%
- Ceasefire by 30 Nov 2026 27%
- +3 more outcomes
Closes 31 Dec 2027
Trade
Middle East
$7.4M vol
When will the war between Iran and the USA end?
- Jan – Mar 2027 96%
- Ceasefire by 30 Nov 2026 78%
- December 2026 73%
- +3 more outcomes
Closes 31 Dec 2027
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US midterms
$6.7M vol
How many Senate seats will Democrats net gain?
- +4 seats 54%
- +1 seat 49%
- 0 or fewer 28%
- +3 more outcomes
Closes 30 Nov 2026
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US midterms
$5.4M vol
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate seat?
24%
Yes
-8¢
24h
Closes 3 Nov 2026
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US midterms
$5.3M vol
Will the Democrats win the House by 20 or more seats?
13%
Yes
-37¢
24h
Closes 30 Nov 2026
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Russia–Ukraine
$4.2M vol
Will a full front-line ceasefire be in force by 31 January 2027?
54%
Yes
+32¢
24h
Closes 31 Jan 2027
Trade
UK politics
$3.6M vol
When will Andy Burnham be forced out as Prime Minister?
- Not before 2028 73%
- December 2026 52%
- Jan – Mar 2027 41%
- +3 more outcomes
Closes 31 Dec 2027
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US midterms
$3.4M vol
Will Dan Osborn win Nebraska's Senate seat?
44%
Yes
+4¢
24h
Closes 3 Nov 2026
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US midterms
$3M vol
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate seat?
96%
Yes
+19¢
24h
Closes 3 Nov 2026
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Middle East
$2.9M vol
Will the US and Iran sign a permanent peace agreement in 2026?
13%
Yes
+3¢
24h
Closes 31 Dec 2026
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UK politics
$2.7M vol
Will the UK hold a general election before 2028?
6%
Yes
-28¢
24h
Closes 31 Dec 2027
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UK politics
$2.4M vol
Will Andy Burnham still be Prime Minister on 31 December 2026?
50%
Yes
-27¢
24h
Closes 31 Dec 2026
Trade
Russia–Ukraine
$2.3M vol
Will Russia and Ukraine sign a peace treaty in 2027?
23%
Yes
-4¢
24h
Closes 31 Dec 2027
Trade
Middle East
$2M vol
Will the Strait of Hormuz be closed for 7 or more consecutive days before 2027?
25%
Yes
+3¢
24h
Closes 31 Dec 2026
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Middle East
$1.7M vol
Will Brent crude close above $120 before 2027?
3%
Yes
-17¢
24h
Closes 31 Dec 2026
Trade
UK politics
$1.6M vol
Will Labour win the next UK general election?
83%
Yes
+42¢
24h
Closes 31 Dec 2028
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US midterms
$1.4M vol
Will 2026 midterm turnout exceed 2022 turnout?
49%
Yes
+4¢
24h
Closes 31 Dec 2026
Trade
Russia–Ukraine
$908.6K vol
Will the Oleshky humanitarian corridor still be operating on 30 November 2026?
97%
Yes
+39¢
24h
Closes 30 Nov 2026
Trade
US midterms
$2M vol
Which party wins the most governor races?
- Republican Party 75%
- Democratic Party 66%
Closes 3 Nov 2026
Trade
UK politics
$1.2M vol
Will 20 or more Labour MPs rebel on the Autumn Budget?
32%
Yes
+7¢
24h
Closes 15 Dec 2026
Trade
How Torus works
Three steps between a hunch and a position.
01
Every price is a probability
A market at 62¢ means the crowd gives the outcome a 62% chance. Buy at 40¢ and you profit 60¢ a share if it happens.
02
Buy yes or buy no
Pick an outcome, choose a side, and size your position. The order book moves with every trade, just like a real exchange.
03
Cash out before settlement
Prices move as news breaks. Sell your position back to the market whenever you like — or hold to resolution.
Latest trades
Will 20 or more Labour MPs rebel on the Autumn Budget?
Will a full front-line ceasefire be in force by 31 January 20…
Will Brent crude close above $120 before 2027?
Will the Democrats win the House by 20 or more seats?
Will 20 or more Labour MPs rebel on the Autumn Budget?
Will the Oleshky humanitarian corridor still be operating on …
Will a full front-line ceasefire be in force by 31 January 20…