War
Open for trading
Will a full front-line ceasefire be in force by 31 January 2027?
55¢
Yes
Yes
Buy yes or no
Select a row to trade it| Outcome | Probability | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Yes
|
55¢ | +32¢ | |
|
No
|
45¢ | -32¢ |
Market rules
Resolves Yes if a Russia–Ukraine ceasefire covering the whole front line is in force at 23:59 Kyiv time on 31 January 2027 and has held for at least seven consecutive days. Localised truces, corridor agreements and energy-infrastructure truces do not count.
- Settlement: resolves to 100¢ for the winning outcome, 0¢ for the rest.
- Trading: open until 31 Jan 2027; positions can be sold back to the book at any time before then.
- Source: resolution follows the rules above, based on reporting by the listed official sources.
- Paper trading: this is a simulation for entertainment. No real money changes hands.
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