World
Open for trading
Will the Strait of Hormuz be closed for 7 or more consecutive days before 2027?
75¢
Yes
No
Buy yes or no
Select a row to trade it| Outcome | Probability | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Yes
|
26¢ | +4¢ | |
|
No
|
75¢ | -4¢ |
Market rules
Resolves Yes if commercial transit through the Strait of Hormuz is halted for at least seven consecutive days before 1 January 2027, as confirmed by a Lloyd's List or UKMTO advisory or by the US Fifth Fleet. Individual vessel attacks, mines or temporary convoy suspensions without a full halt in transit do not resolve Yes.
- Settlement: resolves to 100¢ for the winning outcome, 0¢ for the rest.
- Trading: open until 31 Dec 2026; positions can be sold back to the book at any time before then.
- Source: resolution follows the rules above, based on reporting by the listed official sources.
- Paper trading: this is a simulation for entertainment. No real money changes hands.
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