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UK 6 outcomes Open for trading

When will Andy Burnham be forced out as Prime Minister?

Last price73¢
24h change+28¢
Volume$3.6M
Open interest1,840,000
Closes31 Dec 2027
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73¢ Leading outcome
Not before 2028

Outcomes

Select a row to trade it
Outcome Probability Price 24h
Before 1 Dec 2026
Within five weeks
24¢ +18¢
December 2026
Before the new year
52¢ +46¢
Jan – Mar 2027
First quarter
41¢ +29¢
Apr – Jun 2027
Second quarter
34¢ +22¢
Jul – Dec 2027
Second half of 2027
36¢ +21¢
Not before 2028
Survives the year
73¢ +28¢

Market rules

This market resolves to the date bucket in which Andy Burnham ceases to be Prime Minister before the end of the current Parliament, having left office under political pressure — a resignation, a successful leadership challenge, or removal by his party. A general election defeat or a routine transition after an election does not count as being "forced out"; nor does leaving office to take another role. Resolution follows the official announcement from Downing Street and contemporaneous reporting by the BBC and PA Media.

  • Settlement: resolves to 100¢ for the winning outcome, 0¢ for the rest.
  • Trading: open until 31 Dec 2027; positions can be sold back to the book at any time before then.
  • Source: resolution follows the rules above, based on reporting by the listed official sources.
  • Paper trading: this is a simulation for entertainment. No real money changes hands.

Market ID 1 · Closes 31 Dec 2027 · Torus exchange

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Top outcome 73¢
Not before 2028 Buy now