UK
6 outcomes Open for trading
When will Andy Burnham be forced out as Prime Minister?
73¢
Leading outcome
Not before 2028
Outcomes
Select a row to trade it| Outcome | Probability | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Before 1 Dec 2026
Within five weeks |
24¢ | +18¢ | |
|
December 2026
Before the new year |
52¢ | +46¢ | |
|
Jan – Mar 2027
First quarter |
41¢ | +29¢ | |
|
Apr – Jun 2027
Second quarter |
34¢ | +22¢ | |
|
Jul – Dec 2027
Second half of 2027 |
36¢ | +21¢ | |
|
Not before 2028
Survives the year |
73¢ | +28¢ |
Market rules
This market resolves to the date bucket in which Andy Burnham ceases to be Prime Minister before the end of the current Parliament, having left office under political pressure — a resignation, a successful leadership challenge, or removal by his party. A general election defeat or a routine transition after an election does not count as being "forced out"; nor does leaving office to take another role. Resolution follows the official announcement from Downing Street and contemporaneous reporting by the BBC and PA Media.
- Settlement: resolves to 100¢ for the winning outcome, 0¢ for the rest.
- Trading: open until 31 Dec 2027; positions can be sold back to the book at any time before then.
- Source: resolution follows the rules above, based on reporting by the listed official sources.
- Paper trading: this is a simulation for entertainment. No real money changes hands.
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