Elections
2 outcomes Open for trading
Which party controls the US Senate after the midterms?
56¢
Leading outcome
Republican Party
Outcomes
Select a row to trade it| Outcome | Probability | Price | 24h |
|---|---|---|---|
|
Republican Party
Defends a 53–47 majority |
56¢ | -2¢ | |
|
Democratic Party
Needs a net gain of 4 |
46¢ | +7¢ |
Market rules
Resolves to the party that holds a majority of Senate seats after the 2026 elections, with the Vice President's tie-breaking vote counting toward the party that holds the White House. If control is decided by a power-sharing agreement, the party of the majority leader is deemed to control the chamber. Verified against the AP's final Senate race calls.
- Settlement: resolves to 100¢ for the winning outcome, 0¢ for the rest.
- Trading: open until 3 Nov 2026; positions can be sold back to the book at any time before then.
- Source: resolution follows the rules above, based on reporting by the listed official sources.
- Paper trading: this is a simulation for entertainment. No real money changes hands.
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